We all know intuitively that forward-looking predictions can be wrong, or self serving, but we love them any way. It’s enough to look at the predictions from 2019 (that didn’t see Covid coming…) to understand how big trends can missed due to an unpredictable sequence of events.
But if anything, predictions offer us a forward looking view into existing trends, by extending the line from today to a near future. I collected some of the more interesting tech predictions for the coming year in some of the areas that interest us at Remagine: Metaverse tech (virtual worlds, immersive tech, web3), gaming and consumer tech from interesting reputable sources.
The list is by no means exhaustive, but it reflects predictions I generally agree with.
AR/VR
AR and VR are both growing in consumer adoption. The Oculus Quest became the first mainstream VR headset, with more than 10 million units sold in 2021. If we apply Moore’s law, assuming that more engineering and money are poured into VR, it’s possible that AR/VR headsets could replace smartphones in the future. But there are several things that are still unsolved for that to happen:
- Technical issues like AR Optics
- Practical use cases beyond gaming and entertainment
- Question whether 3D everything is the future of our tech interaction
It’s tempting to see AR/VR as the potential device that would replace smartphones. But Benedict Evans rightfully questions if it’s not premature to do so, in his excellent Tech questions for 2022.
AR and VR might be the next smartphone, but they might also be the next smart watch, drone, or games console – very cool but a narrow market
Benedict Evans
Another trend that is connected to AR/VR is semiconductors. Supply chain challenges which have caused shortages around the world will have an impact on the speed that AR/VR enabled’s devices penetrate the market.
Metaverse
Activate Technology and Media outlook 2022, created by Active Consulting, offers a very interesting take on the future of the Metaverse.
I agree with their overall narrative:
- Pursuit of the metaverse will drive companies to make extensive technology and experience investments (see previous point re: Moore’s law, making the tech to access the metaverse chaper)
- Games are the starting point and most viable path towards the metaverse
- We expect to see an expansive set of metaverse activities; eventually all digital behavior and many daily activities will take place on metaverse platforms
- We expect to see NFT growth across a broader set of industries, driven by consumer interest
- The winners in the NFT space are far from decided; new players, technologies, and use cases will continue to emerge
Another interesting report on Gen-Z trends is Dazed Media’s 2031 Future World report. One of its predictions that stood out for me, was on virtual events in the Metaverse, coming from the head of Music at Roblox:
“As more and more people spend more time online and technical capabilities expand,
Jon Vlassopulos, VP, Global Head of Music, Roblox
we’ll increasingly see the metaverse play host to massive, immersive, virtual events, pioneering new forms of live, participatory entertainment.”
Companies and individuals are spending millions on Metaverse real estate. The virtual real estate (currently living in virtual worlds like Decentraland or Sandbox, can then be developed into virtual shops or experiences where users can interact with the brand or with each other. The WSJ shares more on this crypto gaming trend. The value of goods in the Metaverse is predicted to soon be worth $1 trillion.
For more on the Metaverse, read my previous post ‘A very short peak into the Metaverse‘.
Gaming
Dean Takahashi, the editor of GamesBeat (VentureBeat’s gaming focused publication) covers gaming with passion. In his 2022 Gaming predictions there are a number of themes that will no doubt impact the gaming industry in the year to come. Here are the top 3:
- Consolidation in the gaming industry will continue (read: more M&A) as long as the economy stays healthy
- Play-to-Earn games will continue to grow, especially in emerging markets.
- In the same vain, NFT games will go mainstream.
NFT sales may have already exceeded many predictions… here’s an interesting stat from Opensea (the largest NFT marketplace, recently valued at $13B) from mid Jan 2022:
Given the shortage in gaming consoles (see semiconductor issue above), and thanks to growing smartphone penetration, mobile gaming will continue to grow rapidly in 2022. According to Unity’s mobile gaming trends 2022 report, the majority of gaming revenues will be from mobile by 2023.
Nearly four billion smartphones will be in people’s pockets in 2021,2 and nearly
Unity, Mobile Gaming Trends 2022
1.8B people have downloaded games for these smartphones. By 2025, it’s estimated that this number will have exploded to more than 2.2B… Worldwide, mobile gaming (smartphones and tablets) will generate revenues of over $85B in 2021 and over $100B in 2023, with an overall compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 18%.
According the State of Mobile 2022 report by App Annie, in the top 10 mobile markets, consumers spent 4.8 hours a day on mobile. Games represent about 10% of the time spent.
Mobile gaming grew to $116 billion an increase of 15%, fueled by the growth of hypercasual games. And interest in the metaverse catapulted leading avatar apps forward with 160% year-over-year growth
App Annie, The state of mobile in 2022
Overall, 2022 is poised to be a very interesting year for entertainment tech, metaverse and gaming. It’s hard to predict much these days but one thing is clear. More and more of users attention is spent on screens. And money follows attention. A lot of changes are happening in the world of work – but they are also happening in how we spend our time and money outside of work: entertainment, education, physical and mental wellbeing, dating, commerce etc. Backing the future leaders of these new trends is what gets us up in the morning at Remagine Ventures.
I'm a former general partner at google ventures, head of Google for Entrepreneurs in Europe and founding head of Campus London, Google's first physical hub for startups.
I'm also the founder of Techbikers, a non-profit bringing together the startup ecosystem on cycling challenges in support of Room to Read. Since inception in 2012 we've built 11 schools and 50 libraries in the developing world.
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